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Forewarned is Forearmed: Extended-Range …

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JOURNALS

Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Earth Interactions Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology Journal of Climate Journal of Hydrometeorology Journal of Physical Oceanography Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences Monthly Weather Review Weather and Forecasting Weather, Climate, and Society Meteorological Monographs

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JOURNALS

Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Earth Interactions Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology Journal of Climate Journal of Hydrometeorology Journal of Physical Oceanography Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences Monthly Weather Review Weather and Forecasting Weather, Climate, and Society Meteorological Monographs

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Weather and Forecasting

Volume 31: Issue 3

Early Online Release

Volume: 41 (2026)

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Volume: 40 (2025)

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Volume: 39 (2024)

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Volume: 38 (2023)

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Volume: 37 (2022)

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Volume: 36 (2021)

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Volume: 35 (2020)

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Volume: 34 (2019)

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Volume: 33 (2018)

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Volume: 32 (2017)

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Volume: 31 (2016)

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Volume: 30 (2015)

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Volume: 29 (2014)

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Volume: 28 (2013)

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Volume: 27 (2012)

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Volume: 26 (2011)

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Volume: 25 (2010)

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Volume: 24 (2009)

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Volume: 23 (2008)

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Volume: 22 (2007)

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Volume: 21 (2006)

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Volume: 20 (2005)

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Volume: 19 (2004)

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Volume: 18 (2003)

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Volume: 17 (2002)

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Volume: 16 (2001)

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Volume: 15 (2000)

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Volume: 14 (1999)

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Volume: 13 (1998)

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Volume: 12 (1997)

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Volume: 11 (1996)

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Volume: 10 (1995)

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Volume: 9 (1994)

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Volume: 8 (1993)

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Volume: 7 (1992)

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Volume: 6 (1991)

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Volume: 5 (1990)

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Volume: 4 (1989)

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Volume: 3 (1988)

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Volume: 2 (1987)

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Volume: 1 (1986)

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Sections

Abstract

1. Introduction

2. Forecast system and methodology
a. POAMA-2 forecast system

b. Forecasts and verification

3. January 2013
a. Temperature forecasts

b. Large-scale circulation and drivers

4. March 2013
a. Temperature forecasts

b. Large-scale circulation and drivers

5. September 2013
a. Temperature forecasts

b. Large-scale circulation and drivers

6. Summary and conclusions

References

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Alexander, L. V., HopeP. , CollinsD. , TrewinB. , LynchA. , and NichollsN. , 2007: Trends in Australia’s climate means and extremes: A global context. Aust. Meteor. Mag., 56, 1–18.

Alexander, L. V., HopeP. , CollinsD. , TrewinB. , LynchA. , and NichollsN. , 2007:
Trends in Australia’s climate means and extremes: A global context
. Aust. Meteor. Mag., 56, 1–18.)| false

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Arblaster, J. M., LimE.-P. , HendonH. H. , TrewinB. , WheelerM. C. , LuoG. , and BraganzaK. , 2014: Understanding Australia’s hottest September on record [in “Explaining Extremes of 2013 from a Climate Perspective”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95 (9), S37–S41.

Arblaster, J. M., LimE.-P. , HendonH. H. , TrewinB. , WheelerM. C. , LuoG. , and BraganzaK. , 2014:
Understanding Australia’s hottest September on record [in “Explaining Extremes of 2013 from a Climate Perspective”]
. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95 (9), S37–S41.)| false

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Bureau of Meteorology, 2013a: A prolonged autumn heatwave for southeast Australia. Bureau of Meteorology Special Climate Statement 45, Melbourne, VIC, Australia, 17 pp. [Available online at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/statements/scs45.pdf.]

Bureau of Meteorology, 2013b: Australia’s warmest September on record.Bureau of Meteorology Special Climate Statement 46, Melbourne, VIC, Australia, 26 pp. [Available online at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/statements/scs46.pdf.]

Bureau of Meteorology, 2013c: Extreme heat in January 2013. Bureau of Meteorology Special Climate Statement 43, Melbourne, VIC, Australia, 19 pp. [Available online at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/statements/scs43e.pdf.]

Climate Prediction Center, 2013: January 2013 Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. NOAA/CPC, 90 pp. [Available online at http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CDB/.]

Collins, D. A., Della-MartaP. M. , PlummerN. , and TrewinB. C. , 2000: Trends in annual frequencies of extreme temperature events in Australia. Aust. Meteor. Mag., 49, 277–292.

Collins, D. A., Della-MartaP. M. , PlummerN. , and TrewinB. C. , 2000:
Trends in annual frequencies of extreme temperature events in Australia
. Aust. Meteor. Mag., 49, 277–292.)| false

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Collis, C., 2013: Warm conditions trigger early harvest. Ground Cover, No. 107, Grains Research and Development Corporation, Barton, ACT, Australia, p 33. [Available online at http://www.grdc.com.au/GroundCover.]

Colman, R., DeschampsL. , NaughtonM. , RikusL. , SulaimanA. , PuriK. , RoffG. , SunZ. , and EmburyG. , 2005: BMRC Atmospheric Model (BAM) version 3.0: Comparison with mean climatology. BMRC Research Rep. 108, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC, Australia, 23 pp.

Dee, D. P., and Coauthors, 2011: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 553–597, doi:10.1002/qj.828.

Dee, D. P., and Coauthors, 2011:
The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system
. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 553–597, doi:10.1002/qj.828.)| false

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