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NHC Track and Intensity Models

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Climatology | Names | Wind Scale | Extremes | Models | Breakpoints

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Updated 1 June 2026

The term "forecast model" refers to any objective tool used to generate predictions of future events, such as the state of the atmosphere. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) uses many models as guidance in the preparation of official track and intensity forecasts. The most commonly used models at NHC are summarized in the tables below.

Forecast models vary tremendously in structure and complexity. They can be simple enough to run in a few seconds on an ordinary computer, or complex enough to require a number of hours on a supercomputer.

Dynamical models, also known as numerical models, are the most complex and use high-speed computers to solve the physical equations of motion governing the atmosphere.

Statistical models, in contrast, do not explicitly account for atmospheric physics; instead, they are based on historical relationships between storm behavior and storm-specific details such as location and date.

Statistical-dynamical models combine dynamical and statistical techniques by forecasting storm behavior using established historical relationships between storm behavior and atmospheric variables provided by dynamical models.

Trajectory models move a tropical cyclone (TC) along based on the prevailing flow obtained from a separate dynamical model (either the GFS or the ECMWF).

Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning (AI/ML) models are trained on reanalysis outputs from dynamical models, as well as other datasets, to reproduce predicted atmospheric conditions and minimize errors in the training dataset.

Ensemble or consensus models are created by combining forecasts from multiple models/perturbations.

Table 1. Summary of global and regional dynamical models for track, intensity, and wind radii.

ATCF ID Global/Regional
Model Name Horizontal
Resolution Vertical Levels
and Coordinates Data
Assimilation Convective Scheme Cycle/Run Frequency NHC Forecast
Parameter(s)
AVNO/AVNI
GFSO/GFSI Global Forecast System (FV3-GFS) Finite Volume Cube Sphere (~13km) 64 Hybrid Sigma-pressure GSI/4D-VAR EnKF hybrid Simplified Arakawa Schubert 6 hr (240 hr)
00/06/12/18 UTC Track, intensity, wind radii
*EMX/EMXI/EMX2 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Spectral (~9km) 137 Hybrid Sigma-pressure 4D-VAR Tiedke mass flux 12 hr (240 hr)
00/12 UTC Track, intensity, wind radii
*UKM/UKMI/UKM2 U.K. Met Office Global Model Grid point (~10 km) 70 Hybrid Sigma-pressure 4D-VAR Ensemble Hybrid UKMET 12 hr (144 hr)
00/12 UTC Track, intensity, wind radii
CMC/CMCI/CMC2 Canadian Deterministic Prediction System Grid point (~15 km) 80 Hybrid Sigma-pressure 4D-VAR Ensemble Hybrid Kain-Fritsch 12 hr (240 hr)
00/12 UTC Track, intensity, wind radii
NVGM/NVGI Navy Global Environmental Model Spectral (~31km) 60 Hybrid Sigma-pressure NAVDAS-AR 4D-VAR Simplified Arakawa Schubert 6 hr (144 hr)
00/06/12/18 UTC Track, intensity, wind radii
HFSA/HFAI Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System Version A Nested Grid point (5.4-1.8 km) 81 Hybrid Sigma-pressure 4D-Ensemble VAR Simplified Arakawa Schubert + GFS shallow convection (5.4km) 1.8km nest - none 6 hr (126 hr) 00/06/12/18 UTC
Runs on request from NHC/JTWC Track, intensity, wind radii
HFSB/HFBI Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System Version B Nested Grid point (6-2 km) 81 Hybrid Sigma-pressure 4D-Ensemble VAR Simplified Arakawa Schubert + GFS shallow convection (6km) 2km nest - none 6 hr (126 hr) 00/06/12/18 UTC
Runs on request from NHC/JTWC Track, intensity, wind radii
HWRF/HWFI Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast System Nested Grid point (13.5-4.5-1.5km) 75 Hybrid Sigma-pressure 4D-VAR Hybrid GDAS GFS IC/BC Simplified Arakawa Schubert + GFS shallow convection (6 and 18km) 1.5km nest - none 6 hr (126 hr)
00/06/12/18 UTC
Runs on request from NHC/JTWC Track, intensity, wind radii
CTCX/CTCI NRL COAMPS-TC w/ GFS initial and boundary conditions Nested Grid point (36-12--4 km) 40 Hybrid Sigma-pressure 3D-VAR (NAVDAS) Alternate DA - EnKF DART Deep convective - Kain-Fritsch
Shallow convective scheme - Tiedke 6 hr (126 hr)
00/06/12/18 UTC
Runs commence on 1st NHC/JTWC advisory Track, intensity, wind radii
HMON/HMNI Hurricane Multi-scale Ocean-coupled Non-hydrostatic model Nested Grid point (18-6-2km) 51 Hybrid Sigma-pressure GFS IC/BC Simplified Arakawa Schubert + GFS shallow convection (6 and 18km) 2km nest - none 6 hr (126 hr)
00/06/12/18 UTC
Runs on request from NHC/JTWC Track, intensity, wind radii

* Public Access to these models is restricted due to agreements with the data provider.

Table 2. Summary of ensembles and consensus aids for track and intensity.

ATCF ID Model Name or Type Horizontal Resolution Vertical Levels
and Coordinates Data
Assimilation Perturbation or Consensus Methods Cycle/Run Frequency Ensemble Members NHC Forecast
Parameter(s)
AEMN/AEMI Global Ensemble Forecast System 25 km 64 Hybrid Sigma-pressure GSI/3D-VAR EnKF hybrid 20 of 80 6 hr DA system hybrid EnKF members per cycle 6 hr (384 hr)
00/06/12/18 UTC 31 Track and Intensity
*UEMN/UEMI U.K. Met Office MOGREPS ~20 km 70 Hybrid Sigma-pressure 4D-VAR EnKF hybrid 44-member EnKF 12 hr (168 hr)
00/12 UTC 17 Track and Intensity
*EEMN/EMNI ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) 9 km 91 Hybrid Sigma-pressure 4D-VAR Stochastically perturbed parameterizations 12 hr (360 hr)
00/12 UTC 50 Track and Intensity
CEMN/CEMI Canadian Ensemble Mean 25 km 84 4D-VAR Ensemble Hybrid Stochastic perturbations 12 hr (240 hr) 00/12 UTC 32 Track and Intensity
*FSSE Florida State Super Ensemble Corrected consensus 6 hr (120 hr)
00/06/12/18 UTC Track and Intensity
HCCA HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach Corrected consensus 6 hr (120 hr)
00/06/12/18 UTC AEMI, GFSI, CTCI, DSHP, EGRI, EMN2, EMXI, HFAI, HFBI, HWFI, LGEM Track and Intensity
*GFEX 2 model consensus Simple consensus 6 hr (120 hr)
00/06/12/18 UTC AVNI, EMXI Track
TVCN Variable consensus Simple consensus, minimum 2 members 6 hr (168 hr)
00/06/12/18 UTC GDMI, AEMI, EMXI, UKMI, HFAI, CTCI Track
RVCN Wind Radii Consensus Multi-model wind radii, bias-corrected initial wind 6 hr (168 hr)
00/06/12/18 UTC GDMI, AVNI, HWFI, EMXI, CTCI, HFAI, HFBI Wind radii
IVCN Intensity variable consensus Simple consensus, minimum 2 members 6 hr (168 hr)
00/06/12/18 UTC GDMI, DSHP, LGEM, HFAI, HFBI, CTCI, HWFI, HMNI Intensity
NNIC Neural Network Intensity Consensus Neural Network with input models and 5 TC predictors 6 hr (168 hr)
00/06/12/18 UTC DSHP, LGEM, HWRF, GFSI Intensity

* Public Access to these models is restricted due to agreements with the data provider.

Table 3. Summary of Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning Models for track and intensity

ATCF ID Model Name or Type Horizontal Resolution Vertical Levels
and Coordinates Training Dataset Perturbation or Consensus Methods Cycle/Run Frequency Ensemble Members NHC Forecast
Parameter(s)
GAIO / GAII AI-GFS
deterministic 28 km 13 Isobaric levels GFS and ERA5 analyses of historical TCs 6 hr (168 hr)
00/06/12/18 UTC Track and Intensity
EGMN / EGMI AI-GEFS
Ensemble mean 28 km 13 Isobaric levels GFS and ERA5 analyses of historical TCs Mean of 30 ensemble members 6 hr (168 hr)
00/06/12/18 UTC 31 Track and Intensity
*EAIO / EAII AIFS-
ECMWF
deterministic 28 km 14 Isobaric levels ERA5 analyses fine-tuned on IFS 6 hr (168 hr)
00/06/12/18 UTC Track and Intensity
*EAMN / EAMI AI-ECMWF ensemble 28 km 14 Isobaric levels ERA5 analyses fine-tuned on IFS Mean of 50 ensemble members 6 hr (168 hr)
00/06/12/18 UTC 50 Track and intensity
GDMN / GDMI Google DeepMind Ensemble Mean 28 km ERA5/IBTrACS analyses of historical TCs (1979-2018)
fine-tuned on HRES-fc0 Mean of 50 members of the DeepMind ensemble 6 hr (15 days)
00/06/12/18 UTC 50 Track, intensity, wind radii
GENC / GENI Google GenCast ensemble mean 28 km ERA5 reanalyses of historical TCs (1979-2018) 6 hr (168 hr)
00/06/12/18 UTC 50 Track and Intensity
GRPH / GRPI Google GraphCast deterministic 28 km ERA5 reanalyses of historical TCs (1979-2018) 6 hr (168 hr)
00/06/12/18 UTC Track and Intensity

* Public Access to these models is restricted due to agreements with the data provider.

Table 4. Summary of statistical models for track, intensity, and wind radii.

ATCF ID Model Name or Type Comments Prediction Methodology Cycle/Run Frequency NHC Forecast
Paramter(s)
CLP5 (OCD5) CLIPER5 Climatology and Persistence Used to measure skill in a set of track forecasts Multiple regression technique. Inputs are current and past TC motion (previous 12-24 hr), forward motion, date, latitude/longitude, and initial intensity 6 hr (168 hr)
00/06/12/18 UTC Track
SHF5/DSF5 (OCD5) Decay-SHIFOR5 Statistical Hurricane Intensity Forecast Used to measure skill in a set of intensity forecasts, includes land decay rate component Multiple regression technique using climatology and persistence predictors 6 hr (168 hr)
00/06/12/18 UTC Intensity
TCLP Trajectory-CLIPER Used to measure skill in a set of track or intensity forecasts Substitute for CLIPER and SHIFOR; similar predictors, but uses trajectories based on reanalysis fields instead of linear regression 6 hr (168 hr)
00/06/12/18 UTC Track and intensity
DRCL Wind Radii CLIPER Statistical parametric vortex model Employs climatology with the parameters determined from 13 coefficients and persistence to produce 34-kt, 50-kt, 64-kt wind radii estimates 6 hr (168 hr)
00/06/12/18 UTC Wind radii
SHIP Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme Statistical-dynamical model based on standard multiple regression techniques Climatology, persistence, environmental atmosphere parameters, and an ocean component 6 hr (168 hr)
00/06/12/18 UTC Intensity
DSHP Decay-Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme Statistical-dynamical model based on standard multiple regression techniques Climatology, persistence, environmental atmosphere parameters, oceanic input, and an inland decay component 6 hr (168 hr)
00/06/12/18 UTC Intensity
LGEM Logistic Growth Equation Model Statistical intensity model based on a simplified dynamical prediction framework A subset of SHIPS predictors, ocean heat content, and variability of the environment used to determine growth rate and wind coefficient 6 hr (168 hr)
00/06/12/18 UTC Intensity
*SHPE Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (ECMWF version) Statistical-dynamical model based on standard multiple regression techniques Climatology, persistence, environmental atmosphere parameters, and an ocean component 6 hr (168 hr)
00/06/12/18 UTC Intensity
*DSPE Decay-Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (ECMWF version) Statistical-dynamical model based on standard multiple regression techniques Climatology, persistence, environmental atmosphere parameters, oceanic input, and an inland decay component 6 hr (168 hr)
00/06/12/18 UTC Intensity
*LGME Logistic Growth Equation Model (ECMWF version) Statistical intensity model based on a simplified dynamical prediction framework A subset of SHIPS predictors, ocean heat content, and variability of the environment used to determine growth rate and wind coefficient 6 hr (168 hr)
00/06/12/18 UTC Intensity

* Public Access to these models is restricted due to agreements with the data provider.

Table 5. Summary of trajectory models for track.

ATCF ID Model Name or Type Vertical Levels
and Coordinates Dynamical Model Field Cycle/Run Frequency NHC Forecast
Parameter(s)
TABS Shallow Layer Trajectory and Beta Advection 850-700 mb GFS 6 hr (168 hr)
00/06/12/18 UTC Track
TABM Medium Layer Trajectory and Beta Advection 850-400 mb GFS 6 hr (168 hr)
00/06/12/18 UTC Track
TABD Deep Layer Trajectory and Beta Advection 850-200 mb GFS 6 hr (168 hr)
00/06/12/18 UTC Track
*TBSE Shallow Layer Trajectory and Beta Advection 850-700 mb ECMWF 6 hr (168 hr)
00/06/12/18 UTC Track
*TBME Medium Layer Trajectory and Beta Advection 850-400 mb ECMWF 6 hr (168 hr)
00/06/12/18 UTC Track
*TBDE Deep Layer Trajectory and Beta Advection 850-200 mb ECMWF 6 hr (168 hr)
00/06/12/18 UTC Track

* Public Access to these models is restricted due to agreements with the data provider.

Early versus Late Models

Numerous objective forecast aids (guidance models) are available to help the NHC Hurricane Specialists prepare their official track and intensity forecasts. Guidance models are classified as early or late, depending on whether they are available to the Hurricane Specialist during the forecast cycle. For example, consider the 1200 UTC (12Z) forecast cycle, which begins at 12Z synoptic time and concludes with the release of the official forecast at 15Z. The 12Z run of the NWS/Global Forecast System (GFS) model is not complete and available to the forecaster until about 16Z, or about an hour after the forecast is released – thus the 12Z GFS would be considered a late model since it could not be used to prepare the 12Z official forecast.

Multi-layer dynamical models are generally, if not always, late models. Fortunately, a technique can be used to take the latest available run of a late model and adjust its forecast to apply to the current synoptic time and initial conditions. In the example above, forecast data for hours 6-126 from the previous (06Z) run of the GFS would be adjusted, or shifted, so that the 6-h forecast (valid at 12Z) would exactly match the observed 12Z position and intensity of the tropical cyclone. The adjustment process produces an "early" version of the GFS model for the 12Z forecast cycle, based on the most current available guidance. The adjusted versions of the late models are known, for historical reasons, as interpolated models.

Interpreting Forecast Models

NHC provides detailed information on the verification of its past forecasts through an annual verification report (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify3.shtml). On average, NHC official forecasts have smaller errors than any individual model. An NHC forecast reflects consideration of all available model guidance as well as forecaster experience. Therefore, users should consult the official forecast products issued by the NHC and local National Weather Service Forecast Offices rather than relying solely on forecast model output. Users should also be aware that uncertainty is inherent in every forecast, and that proper interpretation of the NHC forecast must account for it. NHC forecasters typically discuss forecast uncertainty in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) product. NHC also prepares probabilistic forecasts that incorporate forecast uncertainty information (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnhcprobs.shtml).

NOAA/NWS Models

The National Weather Service produces some of the models used by the National Hurricane Center. These models are run by NOAA/NWS National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Central Operations (NCO). Output images from the NOAA/NWS models can be found through NCEP's Model Analyses and Guidance (MAG) interface. Raw data from the models can be found through the NOAA Operational Model Archive and Distribution System (NOMADS).

Other model background information

Read about the Inland Wind Model and the Maximum Envelope Of Winds

Quick Links and Additional Resources

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ATCF ID	Global/Regional Model Name	Horizontal Resolution	Vertical Levels and Coordinates	Data Assimilation	Convective Scheme	Cycle/Run Frequency	NHC Forecast Parameter(s)
AVNO/AVNI GFSO/GFSI	Global Forecast System (FV3-GFS)	Finite Volume Cube Sphere (~13km)	64 Hybrid Sigma-pressure	GSI/4D-VAR EnKF hybrid	Simplified Arakawa Schubert	6 hr (240 hr) 00/06/12/18 UTC	Track, intensity, wind radii
*EMX/EMXI/EMX2	European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts	Spectral (~9km)	137 Hybrid Sigma-pressure	4D-VAR	Tiedke mass flux	12 hr (240 hr) 00/12 UTC	Track, intensity, wind radii
*UKM/UKMI/UKM2	U.K. Met Office Global Model	Grid point (~10 km)	70 Hybrid Sigma-pressure	4D-VAR Ensemble Hybrid	UKMET	12 hr (144 hr) 00/12 UTC	Track, intensity, wind radii
CMC/CMCI/CMC2	Canadian Deterministic Prediction System	Grid point (~15 km)	80 Hybrid Sigma-pressure	4D-VAR Ensemble Hybrid	Kain-Fritsch	12 hr (240 hr) 00/12 UTC	Track, intensity, wind radii
NVGM/NVGI	Navy Global Environmental Model	Spectral (~31km)	60 Hybrid Sigma-pressure	NAVDAS-AR 4D-VAR	Simplified Arakawa Schubert	6 hr (144 hr) 00/06/12/18 UTC	Track, intensity, wind radii
HFSA/HFAI	Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System Version A	Nested Grid point (5.4-1.8 km)	81 Hybrid Sigma-pressure	4D-Ensemble VAR	Simplified Arakawa Schubert + GFS shallow convection (5.4km) 1.8km nest - none	6 hr (126 hr) 00/06/12/18 UTC Runs on request from NHC/JTWC	Track, intensity, wind radii
HFSB/HFBI	Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System Version B	Nested Grid point (6-2 km)	81 Hybrid Sigma-pressure	4D-Ensemble VAR	Simplified Arakawa Schubert + GFS shallow convection (6km) 2km nest - none	6 hr (126 hr) 00/06/12/18 UTC Runs on request from NHC/JTWC	Track, intensity, wind radii
HWRF/HWFI	Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast System	Nested Grid point (13.5-4.5-1.5km)	75 Hybrid Sigma-pressure	4D-VAR Hybrid GDAS GFS IC/BC	Simplified Arakawa Schubert + GFS shallow convection (6 and 18km) 1.5km nest - none	6 hr (126 hr) 00/06/12/18 UTC Runs on request from NHC/JTWC	Track, intensity, wind radii
CTCX/CTCI	NRL COAMPS-TC w/ GFS initial and boundary conditions	Nested Grid point (36-12--4 km)	40 Hybrid Sigma-pressure	3D-VAR (NAVDAS) Alternate DA - EnKF DART	Deep convective - Kain-Fritsch Shallow convective scheme - Tiedke	6 hr (126 hr) 00/06/12/18 UTC Runs commence on 1st NHC/JTWC advisory	Track, intensity, wind radii
HMON/HMNI	Hurricane Multi-scale Ocean-coupled Non-hydrostatic model	Nested Grid point (18-6-2km)	51 Hybrid Sigma-pressure	GFS IC/BC	Simplified Arakawa Schubert + GFS shallow convection (6 and 18km) 2km nest - none	6 hr (126 hr) 00/06/12/18 UTC Runs on request from NHC/JTWC	Track, intensity, wind radii

ATCF ID	Model Name or Type	Horizontal Resolution	Vertical Levels and Coordinates	Data Assimilation	Perturbation or Consensus Methods	Cycle/Run Frequency	Ensemble Members	NHC Forecast Parameter(s)
AEMN/AEMI	Global Ensemble Forecast System	25 km	64 Hybrid Sigma-pressure	GSI/3D-VAR EnKF hybrid	20 of 80 6 hr DA system hybrid EnKF members per cycle	6 hr (384 hr) 00/06/12/18 UTC	31	Track and Intensity
*UEMN/UEMI	U.K. Met Office MOGREPS	~20 km	70 Hybrid Sigma-pressure	4D-VAR EnKF hybrid	44-member EnKF	12 hr (168 hr) 00/12 UTC	17	Track and Intensity
*EEMN/EMNI	ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System (EPS)	9 km	91 Hybrid Sigma-pressure	4D-VAR	Stochastically perturbed parameterizations	12 hr (360 hr) 00/12 UTC	50	Track and Intensity
CEMN/CEMI	Canadian Ensemble Mean	25 km	84	4D-VAR Ensemble Hybrid	Stochastic perturbations	12 hr (240 hr) 00/12 UTC	32	Track and Intensity
*FSSE	Florida State Super Ensemble				Corrected consensus	6 hr (120 hr) 00/06/12/18 UTC		Track and Intensity
HCCA	HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach				Corrected consensus	6 hr (120 hr) 00/06/12/18 UTC	AEMI, GFSI, CTCI, DSHP, EGRI, EMN2, EMXI, HFAI, HFBI, HWFI, LGEM	Track and Intensity
*GFEX	2 model consensus				Simple consensus	6 hr (120 hr) 00/06/12/18 UTC	AVNI, EMXI	Track
TVCN	Variable consensus				Simple consensus, minimum 2 members	6 hr (168 hr) 00/06/12/18 UTC	GDMI, AEMI, EMXI, UKMI, HFAI, CTCI	Track
RVCN	Wind Radii Consensus				Multi-model wind radii, bias-corrected initial wind	6 hr (168 hr) 00/06/12/18 UTC	GDMI, AVNI, HWFI, EMXI, CTCI, HFAI, HFBI	Wind radii
IVCN	Intensity variable consensus				Simple consensus, minimum 2 members	6 hr (168 hr) 00/06/12/18 UTC	GDMI, DSHP, LGEM, HFAI, HFBI, CTCI, HWFI, HMNI	Intensity
NNIC	Neural Network Intensity Consensus				Neural Network with input models and 5 TC predictors	6 hr (168 hr) 00/06/12/18 UTC	DSHP, LGEM, HWRF, GFSI	Intensity

ATCF ID	Model Name or Type	Comments	Prediction Methodology	Cycle/Run Frequency	NHC Forecast Paramter(s)
CLP5 (OCD5)	CLIPER5 Climatology and Persistence	Used to measure skill in a set of track forecasts	Multiple regression technique. Inputs are current and past TC motion (previous 12-24 hr), forward motion, date, latitude/longitude, and initial intensity	6 hr (168 hr) 00/06/12/18 UTC	Track
SHF5/DSF5 (OCD5)	Decay-SHIFOR5 Statistical Hurricane Intensity Forecast	Used to measure skill in a set of intensity forecasts, includes land decay rate component	Multiple regression technique using climatology and persistence predictors	6 hr (168 hr) 00/06/12/18 UTC	Intensity
TCLP	Trajectory-CLIPER	Used to measure skill in a set of track or intensity forecasts	Substitute for CLIPER and SHIFOR; similar predictors, but uses trajectories based on reanalysis fields instead of linear regression	6 hr (168 hr) 00/06/12/18 UTC	Track and intensity
DRCL	Wind Radii CLIPER	Statistical parametric vortex model	Employs climatology with the parameters determined from 13 coefficients and persistence to produce 34-kt, 50-kt, 64-kt wind radii estimates	6 hr (168 hr) 00/06/12/18 UTC	Wind radii
SHIP	Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme	Statistical-dynamical model based on standard multiple regression techniques	Climatology, persistence, environmental atmosphere parameters, and an ocean component	6 hr (168 hr) 00/06/12/18 UTC	Intensity
DSHP	Decay-Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme	Statistical-dynamical model based on standard multiple regression techniques	Climatology, persistence, environmental atmosphere parameters, oceanic input, and an inland decay component	6 hr (168 hr) 00/06/12/18 UTC	Intensity
LGEM	Logistic Growth Equation Model	Statistical intensity model based on a simplified dynamical prediction framework	A subset of SHIPS predictors, ocean heat content, and variability of the environment used to determine growth rate and wind coefficient	6 hr (168 hr) 00/06/12/18 UTC	Intensity
*SHPE	Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (ECMWF version)	Statistical-dynamical model based on standard multiple regression techniques	Climatology, persistence, environmental atmosphere parameters, and an ocean component	6 hr (168 hr) 00/06/12/18 UTC	Intensity
*DSPE	Decay-Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (ECMWF version)	Statistical-dynamical model based on standard multiple regression techniques	Climatology, persistence, environmental atmosphere parameters, oceanic input, and an inland decay component	6 hr (168 hr) 00/06/12/18 UTC	Intensity
*LGME	Logistic Growth Equation Model (ECMWF version)	Statistical intensity model based on a simplified dynamical prediction framework	A subset of SHIPS predictors, ocean heat content, and variability of the environment used to determine growth rate and wind coefficient	6 hr (168 hr) 00/06/12/18 UTC	Intensity