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The prediction of track, intensity and structure of typhoons, especially at forecast lead times from 3 to 7days, has been extremely challenging due to numerous factors. Included are lack of understanding the key dynamic and thermodynamic processes, large uncertainties from the complex environments and internal dynamics, multiscale interactions among different physical processes like radiation, planetary boundary layer process, microphysics, etc. and various geophysical components such as ocean, land and atmosphere, suboptimal assimilation of observations due to approximation and limitations of current analysis techniques, a large gap between the scales that observations and numerical models might represent or resolve, and limited representations of physical processes in numerical models. To improve the understanding of these essential aspects of typhoon forecasts, the grant “Key Dynamic and Thermodynamic Processes and Prediction for the Evolution of Typhoon Intensity and Structure” (KPPT) is funded by the National Key Research and Development Program, Ministry of Science and Technology of the People’s Republic of China, for years 2018-2022. The grant focuses on the dynamics, physics, data assimilation and prediction of typhoons, especially at forecast lead times from 3 to 7 days. Research topics include the dynamic and thermodynamic processes during typhoon evolutions, predictability of typhoon track, intensity and structure, key physical processes and parameterization schemes for the numerical modelling system, multi-scale ensemble-based data assimilation, effective usage of advanced observations like satellite radiances, and forecasting techniques for typhoon track, intensity and structure. The goals are to deliver forecast products of typhoon track, intensity and structure at 3-7 days in advance, and develop international collaborative and demonstration platform for the western North Pacific typhoon monitoring and forecasting, provide service for natural disaster risk management. A team in which majority of members dedicate to scientific research, development of numerical model and forecasting techniques for typhoon, will build up.






Research Themes more>>






Dynamics and predictability for typhoons

It is hypothesized that "the complex multiscale interaction between environment and vortex" is the key to the changes of typhoon track, intensity and structure, and that "the changes of typhoon track, intensity and structure are internally coordinated given an environmental forcing". Based on this new theoretical assumption this subject systematically studies the challenging 3-7-day prediction of typhoons and predictability in the Northwest Pacific.

16 Nov 2022 03:02 UTC







Study on the Mechanisms and Key Physical Processes of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change

Tropical cyclones (TCs）are synotpic weather systems that form overthewarm tropical oceans. After their geneses, TCs are often affectd by complex multi-scale processes among convections, storm scale dynamics and the varying environment. Because of their complexity, 3-7 day forecastis o f TC track, structure and intensity are quite chanlenging, and thus how to imrpove the TC track, intensity and structure 3-7 day in advance is one of the difficult issues in the world.

15 Nov 2022 03:02 UTC







Data assimilation algorithms for typhoons

Data assimilation plays a critical role in improving the skills of numerical weather prediction by establishing accurate initial conditions. Especially for forecasting tropical cyclones (TCs), multiscale data assimilation algorithm and ensemble sensitivity analysis, strategies combating dynamically inconsistent and imbalanced initial conditions, and effective usage of advanced observations like the satellite radiances, are investigated.

14 Nov 2022 03:02 UTC







Study on Prediction Technique of 3-7 Day Track, Intensity and Structure of Typhoons

It focuses on solving the difficult 3-7 day long-term typhoon forecast problem and develops some new integrated schemes or algorithms for operational typhoon track, intensity and scale or structure forecast. The results of the project will be directly applied to operational typhoon forecasting in China, improve the ability to forecast 3-7 days of typhoons, and play an active role in national disaster prevention and reduction.

13 Nov 2022 03:03 UTC











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