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Home » Forecasting and Modeling

Forecasting and Modeling

Ecological forecasting and modeling are used to predict changes in the environment and the resulting impacts to ecosystems, people, economies, and communities. Forecasting and modeling capabilities allow NOAA to help our nation mitigate the impacts of climate change, promote a vibrant Blue Economy, and protect the public from coastal hazards. NCCOS’s world-class scientists integrate geospatial modeling products for end-to-end support of customers in the coastal and ocean management community. These unique capabilities are used by federal, state, and local decision makers to ensure that special places are valued, protected, and preserved, and to assist in growing the economies that are dependent on our nation’s maritime resources.

Forecasting and Modeling by Topic

Harmful Algal Blooms

Pathogens

Hypoxia

Species Distribution Models

Habitat Conditions

Sea Nettles

Advances in Technology Driving Ecological Forecasting

Citizen Science

Mobile phone-based technology is allowing citizens to improve NOAA’s harmful algal bloom (HAB) detection capabilities in the Gulf of Mexico. This effort allows NOAA to increase the frequency and resolution of HAB forecasts, improving the ability to protect the health of beachgoers during Red Tides.

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Uncrewed Systems

The deployment of NOAA’s fleet of gliders and Environmental Sampling Processors is a pivotal component of NOAA’s observation networks, which provide real-time data necessary to model and forecast changing environmental conditions.

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Genomics

Genomic techniques allow NOAA to detect and predict the the presence of pathogenic bacteria like Vibrio spp. This predictive capability allows NOAA to inform shellfish farming and harvesting processes that ensure seafood safety and sanitation.

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Featured Stories

From Around the Field

Developing a Machine- Learning-Based, High Resolution, Predictive Capacity Monitoring for Paralytic Shellfish Toxins

Modeling and Mapping Marine Bird Distributions on the U.S. Atlantic Outer Continental Shelf to Support Offshore Renewable Energy Planning

Causes and Consequences of Hypoxic Events in Low-Inflow Estuaries in Southern California

Epidemiological Modeling and Outbreak Investigations for Marine Wildlife

Early Warning System for Pseudo-nitzschia Harmful Algal Blooms in the Pacific Northwest

Environmental Models for Marine Aquaculture and Spatial Planning

About NCCOS

NCCOS delivers ecosystem science solutions for stewardship of the nation’s ocean and coastal resources to sustain thriving coastal communities and economies.

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