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User #6723637443 posts

Guiding Light
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posted 2026-May-22, 1:35 pm

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posted 2026-May-22, 1:35 pm

O.P.

This US$1.75T IPO is absolutely insane...

Musk will control 85% of the shareholder vote, making him unfireable

In 2025, SpaceX lost US$5 billion on revenue of US$18.7B (it's AI division lost US$6.4 billion)

Very ambitious... "orbital AI compute satellites by early-2028" (why?). It's stated goal of "“establish a lunar economy, transport humans and cargo to the Moon and Mars, and develop human augmentation systems" openly relies on “unproven” technologies or “technologies that do not exist.”

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026036936/spaceexplorationtechnologi.htm#id286866c4c474ba490d6531a57db9e93_457

It's mad. To make matters worse this financial trash heap is pushing its way into the upper echelon of the NASDAQ 100, which means it will automatically traded heavily by EFT's.

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posted 2026-May-22, 8:03 pm

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posted 2026-May-22, 8:03 pm

Guiding Light writes...

This US$1.75T IPO is absolutely insane...

Simply unsupported opinion.

Investing is all about future profitability and is not a history lesson.

SpaceX could go broke really quickly or it could be the next Amazon.

Amazon famously incurred losses for it first seven years – now often referred to as "strategic losses" in finance texts – and accumulated losses totalling US$3 billion. That"crazy" strategy created a company with market capitalisation now approaching US$3 trillion – Note: trillion, not billion.

Crazy like a fox.

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posted 2026-May-22, 8:05 pm

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posted 2026-May-22, 8:05 pm

TomCole writes...

SpaceX could go broke really quickly or it could be the next Amazon

Yep. One fatal incident and the company could be worthless.

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posted 2026-May-22, 8:08 pm

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posted 2026-May-22, 8:08 pm

An IPO is an opportunity for pre-IPO investors to dump their shares.

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posted 2026-May-22, 8:10 pm

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posted 2026-May-22, 8:10 pm

Guiding Light writes...

In 2025, SpaceX lost US$5 billion on revenue of US$18.7B (it's AI division lost US$6.4 billion)

That's an amazingly good P/E for an AI company. Take my money!!!

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posted 2026-May-22, 8:44 pm

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posted 2026-May-22, 8:44 pm

O.P.

L.B.H. writes...

That's an amazingly good P/E for an AI company.

There's a lot of illusory stuff in this IPO. Anthropic is paying SpaceX $1.25B per month to rent data centre space for 3 years.
The trouble is you start peeling away this stuff and the underlying business isn't great.

TomCole writes...

SpaceX could go broke really quickly or it could be the next Amazon.

SpaceX is a mix of businesses. The main revenue generator Starlink is doing quite well, with impressive project margins (over 60%). But there are all these expensive disconnected startups that are consuming all the cash.

In terms of going broke or not, risk should be priced in. At $1.75T it would have to be a sure thing. Not a gamble... this is blue chip tech stock territory.

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posted 2026-May-23, 10:10 am

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posted 2026-May-23, 10:10 am

Guiding Light writes...

In terms of going broke or not, risk should be priced in. At $1.75T it would have to be a sure thing. Not a gamble... this is blue chip tech stock territory.

You are absolutely right – risk must be priced in. If not, then the IPO will fail. The wolves of Wall Street will analyse this to death, and it is largely their recommendations to clients that will determine the success of the IPO.

While different components are at different stages of the evolution, on balance, I think SpaceX is on the cusp between start-up and growth phases. No way would I classify it as "blue chip" or even close to attaining that status.

It is a high risk IPO, perhaps a very high risk IPO, but there also might also be a glimmer of avarice. It is fun to have a small percentage of high risk investments in your portfolio, but once you pass a certain personal threshhold of 10 or 15% you are crossing the line between investing and gambling.

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posted 2026-May-23, 10:17 am

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posted 2026-May-23, 10:17 am

Fortunately most indices are still free float adjusted so will only hold a very small percentage of SpaceX

Nasdaq on the other hand has completely folded to capture the listing

Key Rule Changes

Fast-Track Inclusion: New, massive listings can enter the Nasdaq-100 in just 15 trading days if their market capitalization immediately places them in the top 40 of the index.

Zero Minimum Float: The requirement that at least 10% of a company's shares must be publicly traded has been eliminated.

Weighting Multiplier: For companies that float less than 20% of their shares, Nasdaq applies a 3x multiplier to the weighting calculation. This artificially inflates the notional float for index purposes.

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posted 2026-May-23, 11:18 am

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posted 2026-May-23, 11:18 am

O.P.

Hockey Monkey writes...

Fast-Track Inclusion: New, massive listings can enter the Nasdaq-100 in just 15 trading days if their market capitalization immediately places them in the top 40 of the index.

I think they are doing this because Antropic and OpenAI are right behind SpaceX as well.

Bond yields are rising and there is probably only limited time and free capital left to absorb these companies.

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posted 2026-May-23, 1:17 pm

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posted 2026-May-23, 1:17 pm

Will VGS include SpaceX soon? I hope it doesn't include it for a while...

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posted 2026-May-23, 2:06 pm

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posted 2026-May-23, 2:06 pm

numberpro writes...

Will VGS include SpaceX soon? I hope it doesn't include it for a while...

VGS uses a MSCI index which typically waits at least 3 months from IPO. It is also free float adjusted which will keep any allocation small

https://www.msci.com/research-and-insights/blog-post/how-megacap-ipos-in-2026-could-reshape-global-benchmarks

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posted 2026-May-23, 2:14 pm

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posted 2026-May-23, 2:14 pm

You gotta question the market valuation sometimes. Tesla has astronomical P/E for example.

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posted 2026-May-23, 2:29 pm

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posted 2026-May-23, 2:29 pm

MMXXVI writes...

You gotta question the market valuation sometimes.

Not sometimes, always.

If you don't like the price then don't buy. If you think the price is too good to be true, then sell.

User #313676 • 10248 posts

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posted 2026-May-23, 4:09 pm

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posted 2026-May-23, 4:09 pm

TomCole writes...

If you don't like the price then don't buy.

Unless you plan to sell to the Greater Fool?

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posted 2026-May-23, 5:17 pm

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posted 2026-May-23, 5:17 pm

There is no doubt SpaceX has done some great work. Their Starlink network is world leading. They can put a kilo of satellite into orbit cheaper than anyone else. I'm using Starlink right now and it works remarkably well. Starship is the largest and most powerful rocket ever built, and SpaceX is rapidly iterating new and better versions.

Having said that, the company has problems. It sets money on fire like there's no tomorrow, mainly because SpaceX is now primarily an AI company with a rocket side business. Why? To rescue X/Grok/etc. Musk throws out completely ridiculous ideas to pump up his portfolio like AI data centers in orbit, and the market seems to lap it up.

Starship is way behind schedule, the goals have been changed (Mars mission ideas scrapped, moon is the goal now), and it's a company that heavily relies on US government money. This is all before we mention all the promises and expectations Musk suggested, like almost a decade ago declaring there will be cheap point to point human transport on Earth via rocket, or that humans would be landing on Mars by 2024, etc.

Whether you like it or not, you will be buying the SpaceX IPO. We all will. It's being fast tracked to the NASDAQ so every superannuation fund with exposure to NASDAQ will be required to buy the stock.

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posted 2026-May-23, 5:37 pm

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cluster2 writes...

so every superannuation fund with exposure to NASDAQ will be required to buy the stock.

I’d be very surprised to see a common super fund tracking the Nasdaq index. Much more common is MSCI, S&P etc

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posted 2026-May-23, 7:00 pm

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posted 2026-May-23, 7:00 pm

Popular ETFs like NDQ, GNDQ, HNDQ locally
and QQQ in the USA
And in other countries as well.

SPCX may inevitably be pushed up by the buying from many index ETFs tracking the NDX.

It could be a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Just like that Tesla hype that made it into Mag-7 status despite super high P/E.

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posted 2026-May-23, 10:25 pm

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cluster2 writes...

Musk throws out completely ridiculous ideas to pump up his portfolio like AI data centers in orbit,

You can ridicule it, but it is an old idea and very plausible if launch costs are low enough, which Starship hopes to achieve. The problem is that battery costs are coming down too. So while space-based data centres may well be cheaper than current earthly ones, will they be cheaper than future ones? I suspect not, but I'm not going the shit on the idea.

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posted 2026-May-23, 10:56 pm

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posted 2026-May-23, 10:56 pm

L.B.H. writes...

So while space-based data centres may well be cheaper than current earthly ones

Getting rid of excess heat is very difficult in a vacuum. You have to rely solely on thermal radiation. Can’t see data centers being viable in space.

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posted 2026-May-24, 12:00 am

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posted 2026-May-24, 12:00 am

L.B.H. writes...

You can ridicule it, but it is an old idea and very plausible if launch costs are low enough, which Starship hopes to achieve.
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