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Wildfires











Wildfires







Natural hazards





Wildfires are increasingly affecting communities, ecosystems and the atmosphere worldwide. Driven by weather, climate and human factors, they threaten lives, worsen air quality through smoke pollution and contribute to climate impacts. 












Overview




Wildfires are uncontrolled fires that burn in forests, grasslands, shrublands and other natural landscapes. They are influenced by weather, climate, vegetation and human activities. While fire is a natural ecological process in many ecosystems, increasingly frequent and intense wildfires cause devastating impacts on lives, livelihoods, biodiversity, infrastructure, air quality and the climate.  According to a UNEP report, extreme wildfires are estimated to increase by up to 14% by 2030 and 30% by 2050. Additionally, decades of satellites data captured by the NASA Earth Observatory instruments reveal that northern wildland fires are becoming significantly more frequent and widespread in the far north as rising temperatures and lightning strikes breach higher Arctic latitudes.  

Wildfire impacts extend far beyond the burned area. Fires release large amounts of particulate matter and trace gases into the atmosphere, generating smoke plumes that can travel hundreds or even thousands of kilometres across national boundaries. These emissions worsen air quality, reduce visibility and affect weather and atmospheric composition, exposing populations far from the fire to harmful pollution.  

Advances in Earth observation, numerical weather prediction, atmospheric composition modelling and integrated fire danger rating systems have significantly improved the ability to detect active fires, forecast fire weather and predict smoke transport, enabling earlier warnings and risk-informed decision-making. 














Impact




Wildfires affect every inhabited continent and are becoming one of the world's fastest-growing natural hazard risks. Their impacts extend well beyond the burned area.

Wildfires threaten lives, destroy homes and infrastructure, disrupt transportation and energy systems, and cause substantial economic losses. They also produce vast quantities of smoke containing fine particulate matter (PM2.5), chemicals that contribute to the formation of harmful ground-level ozone and other pollutants. These can surge 10 to 20 times normal limits during extreme fire events, persist in the atmosphere for days or weeks, travel across regions and continents, and according to the WHO Ambient Air Quality Guidelines, can easily breach safe breathing thresholds for downwind populations.  

Exposure to wildfire smoke is associated with respiratory and cardiovascular diseases and poses the greatest risk to vulnerable populations, including children, older persons, pregnant women and people with pre-existing respiratory or cardiovascular conditions. Over 100,00 premature deaths are attributed exclusively to fine particle from wildfire smoke every year. This tracking, published via the Lancet Countdown co-sponsored network, logged a peak of 154,000 deaths during extreme fire activity. Smoke episodes can also overwhelm health systems, reduce visibility, disrupt aviation and transportation, and affect agriculture, tourism and outdoor activities.

Wildfires also have profound environmental consequences. They can damage forests, peatlands and biodiversity, alter watersheds, increase soil erosion and contribute to flooding and landslides after fires. At the same time, fire remains an important ecological process in many ecosystems, supporting regeneration and biodiversity when it occurs naturally.










WMO's response




By advancing fire weather forecasting, smoke prediction and impact-based early warning systems, WMO helps countries reduce the risks that wildfires pose to people, ecosystems, infrastructure and public health.

Through the Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) Programme, WMO coordinates the Vegetation Fire and Smoke Pollution Warning Advisory and Assessment System (VFSP-WAS), an international partnership that provides coordinated observations, forecasts and assessments of vegetation fires and smoke pollution. VFSP-WAS strengthens countries' capacity to deliver timely information on fire danger, smoke dispersion and air quality impacts, contributing to more effective early warning and health protection.

WMO is also a key partner of the Global Fire Management Hub. The Hub brings together international organizations, scientific institutions and operational agencies to strengthen capacity within countries for Integrated Fire Management (IFM) through knowledge sharing, capacity development, fire risk assessment, early warning and policy support.  

WMO has also established a dedicated Task Team on Fire Weather Services, to advance a globally coordinated approach to wildfire and smoke early warning services, supporting the development of integrated, multi-hazard early warning systems worldwide. Through this initiative, WMO is strengthening international collaboration, improving access to critical data and forecasting products and enhancing resilience to reduce vulnerability to wildfires and smoke pollution.  

Together, these activities contribute to the Early Warnings for All initiative and strengthen international cooperation to improve wildfire risk management, reduce smoke-related health impacts and build more resilient communities.










Related activities












Activity


Early Warnings for All

Early Warnings for All is a groundbreaking initiative to ensure that everyone on Earth is protected from hazardous weather, water, or climate events through life-saving early warning systems by the end of 2027, as called for by United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres on World Meteorological Day 2022. With human-induced climate change leading to more extreme weather conditions, the need for early warning systems is more crucial than ever.  Despite the urgent need, only half of the countries worldwide report having adequate multi-hazard early warning systems. Early warning systems are not a luxury, but a cost-effective tool that saves lives, reduces economic losses, and provides a nearly tenfold return on investment. WMO, together with the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR), co-lead the Early Warnings for All initiative, with support from the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) and the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC).  The delivery of Early Warnings for All requires scale up and coordinated investments and action across the four essential pillars of people centred, end to end Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems (MHEWS): Disaster risk knowledge,Detection, observation, monitoring, analysis, and forecastingWarning dissemination and communication andPreparedness and response capabilities. Achieving Early Warnings for All requires broad partnerships at the global, regional, and national levels in support of the most vulnerable and at risk. The 2023 Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems report, launched at COP28, analyses the latest data one year into the Early Warnings for All Initiative, which aims to cover everyone everywhere by 2027. An Interactive Early Warnings for All Dashboard is now also available. Global Early Warnings for All Initiative














Activity


Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) Programme

The Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) Programme advances scientific understanding and delivers authoritative information on atmospheric composition, enabling countries to assess environmental change, meet their international commitments, and support evidence-based policy and decision-making.This is achieved by enhancing international collaboration in monitoring and forecasting atmospheric composition. GAW promotes the free and open exchange of data, ensuring that atmospheric information is accessible to all, and supports the development of Early Warning Systems for natural hazards— such as wildfires and sand and dust storms—to protect lives. By providing essential atmospheric observations, GAW complements efforts under agreements and conventions such as the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution, the Montreal Protocol and the Paris Agreement.














Activity


WMO Integrated Processing and Prediction System (WIPPS) 

As a worldwide network of operational centres operated by WMO Members, the WMO Integrated Processing and Prediction System (WIPPS) makes defined products and services operationally available among WMO Members and relevant operational organizations for applications related to weather, climate, water and the environment.High-quality products and services are generated using advanced science and technology such as Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and Earth system modelling, better observations, improved data assimilation, increased computing power, and enhanced knowledge of weather dynamics and physics. These advancements have led to more accurate predictions, benefiting operational meteorology, hydrology, oceanography, and climatology. However, there is a significant disparity in forecasting capabilities among WMO Members, with developed Members benefiting more from these advancements compared to developing and least developed countries due to limited resources.  WIPPS serves as a framework to address this gap for sharing operationally meteorological, hydrological, oceanographic, and climatological data. WMO Members can access and utilise the most advanced numerical models’ data and applications through WIPPS Designated Centre (WIPPS-DC), leveraging scientific and technological advancements in Earth system modelling. WIPPS is facilitated by the WMO Information System (WIS), which supports international data exchange. By expanding the range of designated and participating centres, WIPPS enhances the global data-processing and forecasting system, enabling a broader range of applications to strengthen the world’s weather, climate, water and related environmental services. WIPPS was previously known as the Global Data-processing and Forecasting System (GDPFS).Related links:WIPPS on the Community PlatformWIPPS Web PortalWIPPS Dashboard























Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) Programme

The Programme advances scientific understanding and delivers authoritative information on atmospheric composition, enabling countries to assess environmental change, meet their international commitments, and support evidence-based decision-making.












Related publications




WMO Air Quality and Climate Bulletin



Vegetation Fire and Smoke Pollution Warning and Advisory System (VFSP-WAS): Concept Note and Expert Recommendations



The Long Shadow of Wildfires: Smoke, Air Quality and Health













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