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A Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms is Forecast Today and/or Tonight


Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible in parts of the southern Plains and from east-central Colorado into northeastern New Mexico.
 For additional details, see the latest Day 1 Convective Outlook.

Extremely critical fire weather conditions are forecast on Sat (08/01). See details...







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Hazard	Fri (07/31)	Sat (08/01)	Sun (08/02)	Mon (08/03)	Tue (08/04)	Wed (08/05)	Thu (08/06)	Fri (08/07)
Severe	Slight	Slight	Marginal	Severe	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area
Fire	No Critical	Extreme	Critical	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area

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Severe Weather Climatology (1994-2024)

Any Severe Probabilities: 31 Jul Sig Severe Probabilities: 31 Jul Tornado Probabilities: 31 Jul Damaging Wind Probabilities: 31 Jul Severe Hail Probabilities: 31 Jul Significant Tornado Probabilities: 31 Jul Significant Wind Probabilities: 31 Jul Significant Hail Probabilities: 31 Jul

More climatology data here.

2026 Tornado Watch Summary

Page last modified: July 30 2026 12:27 UTC

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What's My Risk? La tormenta factor de riesgo. What's a Watch? How's a Forecast Made? Tornado Safety Tips #TornadoStrong: A Partnership with FLASH

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2026 Severe Thunderstorm Watch Summary

Page last modified: July 30 2026 12:27 UTC

Wildfire Climatology (1992-2020)

100 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 31 Jul 300 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 31 Jul 1000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 31 Jul 5000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 31 Jul

More climatology data here.

Latest SPC Publications Squitieri, B.J., A.R. Wade, and I.L. Jirak, 2026: On a Comprehensive Archive for Derechos across the Contiguous United States. Published in Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.. [6300K PDF] Chalmers, Z. A., M. D. Parker, 2026: Variability in High-Shear, Low-CAPE QLCS Environments in the Southeastern United States. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [21500K PDF] Lyons, A. D., R. L. Thompson, B. T. Smith, H. G. Weinman, and A. R. Dean, 2026: Convective Mode Classification and Distribution of Contiguous U.S. Tornado Events from 2003 to 2023. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [19600K PDF] Harrison, D.R., A. McGovern, C.D. Karstens, A. Bostrom, I.L. Jirak, and P.T. Marsh, 2025: Leveraging Coproduction to Bridge Research and Operations in Operational Meteorology. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [6601K PDF] Harrison, D.R., A. McGovern, C.D. Karstens, A. Bostrom, I.L. Jirak, and P.T. Marsh, 2025: An Assessment of How Domain Experts Evaluate Machine Learning in Operational Meteorology. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [16916K PDF] Squitieri, B.J., A.R. Wade, and I.L. Jirak, 2025: On a Modified Definition of a Derecho. Part II: An Updated Spatial Climatology of Derechos across the Contiguous United States. Published in Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.. [3250K PDF] Squitieri, B.J., A.R. Wade, and I.L. Jirak, 2025: On a Modified Definition of a Derecho. Part I: Construction of the Definition and Quantitative Criteria for Identifying Future Derechos over the Contiguous United States. Published in Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.. [5585K PDF] Moore, A., 2024: Investigating the Near-Surface Wind Fields of Downbursts Using a Series of High-Resolution Idealized Simulations. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [6768K PDF] Find more research articles at the SPC publication archive.	Latest SPC Case Archive
Jul 29, 2026	Tornado: 0	Wind: 106	Hail: 2

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NOAA / National Weather Service National Centers for Environmental Prediction Storm Prediction Center 120 David L. Boren Blvd. Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A. spc.feedback@noaa.gov Page last modified: July 31 2026 07:23 UTC

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